Why Read?

• Understand our estimated volume growth projections for Ardagh Glass derived from structural volume growth projections for each end-use category taking into account pack mix shift from glass to aluminium can packaging. Why we see AGSA forecasts for its glass packaging volume growth and Adj EBITDA over FY 25-27E as challenging to achieve given structural analysis of key end markets, undermining recovery prospects for AGSA’s SSNs and SUNs 
• Understand AGSA SSNs and SUNs recoveries and our pro forma cash flow and capital structure sustainability analysis of AGSA and New BidCo under both AGSA Consensual Restructuring Proposal and under SUN Group Counterproposal disclosed on 11/3/25, as well as under our 8 different restructuring plans for AGSA

What’s New?

• Deep dive into whether glass packaging is in structural decline in key end-use alcoholic beverage categories (wine, beer and traditional spirits) in each of Europe and US
• Projections for consumption volume CAGRs over 2025-34 for each of wine, beer and traditional spirits for each of Europe and US and for ready-to-drink spirits in US
• Estimates of volumes of each alcoholic beverage category packaged in glass and in aluminium cans in Europe and US separately
• Estimation of impact of further pack mix shift from glass to aluminium cans on glass-bottled beer volume growth in Europe and US as well as on can-packaged beer volume growth in both regions
• Derivation of weighted-average volume growth for Ardagh Glass going forward based on end-use category volume growth and taking into account pack mix shift
• Detailed restructuring analysis of both AGSA Consensual Restructuring Proposal, SUN Group Counterproposal and our 8 different restructuring plans for AGSA
• Financial projections and DCF and multiples-based valuations for both Ardagh Glass and AMP – base, bear and bull cases
• Evaluation of why AMP fell so short of its Adj EBITDA targets under original FY 21-24 Plan at time of SPAC Transaction
• Deep dive into market positions within competitive landscape for both AMP and Ardagh Glass – competitor comparisons for AMP vs Ball Corp, Crown Holdings and Canpack; competitor comparisons for Ardagh Glass vs Verallia and O-I Glass

Questions Answered

• Are AGSA forecasts for its glass packaging volume growth and Adj EBITDA growth over FY 25-27E compatible with structural demand trends in key end-use categories?
• What are possible upsides for glass packaging volume going forward?
• What are the prospects for energy drinks volume growth to re-accelerate in US?
• What are AGSA SSNs and SUNs worth across scenarios?
• If either AGSA Consensual Restructuring Proposal or SUN Group Counterproposal materialise, how likely is a second restructuring further down the line?
• How big a risk does Ardagh Glass face from glass to can substitution in beer in Europe? 
• Despite pack mix shift already being heavily skewed to cans for beer in US, is there still material volume risk for Ardagh Glass from further pack mix shift in US beer?
• What is economic position of ZAR Senior Facilities in AGSA’s capital structure and how impactful is this for AGSA SSNs and SUNs recoveries?
• How do aluminium cans compare with glass packaging for beverage and food end-use categories across sustainability, relative cost and product alignment with consumer needs considerations?
• Which is better positioned in terms of its volume mix across end-use categories, Ardagh Glass or Verallia?
• Why did AMP fall so short of its FY 24 Adj EBITDA target of > $1.1bn at time of SPAC Transaction?
• What does Ardagh Glass Adj EBITDA trajectory look like when stripping out former Consol (Africa) business acquired in 2022?